¿La deteriorada condición financiera del gobierno de los Estados Unidos disminuye la atracción por los Treasury Bonds como activos libres de riesgo? ¿Los inversionistas deberían considerar incorporar títulos de gobiernos de otros países con la finalidad de diversificar?
By Andre Soliani and Matthew Bristow
July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s central bank signaled it may stop raising interest rates soon after policy makers unexpectedly slowed the pace of increases and said inflation was less of a threat amid slowing global growth. Yields on short- term interest-rate futures plunged.
The bank’s board, led by Henrique Meirelles, increased the benchmark rate by a half-point to 10.75 percent yesterday. The move, which was anticipated by traders in the interest-rate futures market, surprised 48 of 51 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg who expected a third straight 75 basis-point increase.
Latin America’s biggest economy shows signs of slowing, after expanding 9 percent in the first quarter, the fastest pace in 15 years. Evidence suggests the global expansion will wane. Policy makers said in a statement accompanying the decision that inflationary risks have eased since their June meeting due to “the recent evolution of domestic and external factors.”
“The statement looks like the end of the rate increase cycle,” Ures Folchini, head of fixed income at Banco WestLB do Brasil SA, said in a phone interview from Sao Paulo. “The central bank is seeing that the economy is no longer heated and that the risk of inflation becoming uncontrolled has fallen.”
‘Under Control’
Yields on interest-rate futures contract maturing in January dropped by the most in two months as traders trimmed bets the central bank will raise again in 2010, Folchini said.
The yield on the contract, the most traded on Sao Paulo’s BM&F exchange, fell as much as 12 basis points, or 0.12 percentage point, before paring declines to trade at 10.87 percent at 9:13 a.m. New York time, a 10 basis-point decline.
“There is no need to raise interest rates again this year,” Budget Minister Paulo Bernardo told reporters in Brasilia today. “Inflation is back under control.”
Consumer prices fell 0.09 percent in the month through mid- July, the first drop in four years, the statistics agency said this week. Annual inflation slowed to 4.74 percent, the lowest since February, while still above the bank’s 4.5 percent target.
The price declines came as economic data show the expansion may be slowing, reducing demand. Brazil created fewer jobs and collected less tax revenue than expected in June, according to reports last week by the tax agency and the Labor Ministry. Retail sales and industrial output also missed estimates in May.
Rate Futures
The Selic will end the year at 12 percent, according to the median forecast in a central bank survey of about 100 economists published July 19.
Policy makers may increase borrowing costs another half point at their next meeting on Sept. 1, or may leave rates unchanged, Marcelo Carvalho, an economist with BNP Paribas, wrote yesterday in an e-mailed report.
Brazil’s slowdown comes amid signs that growth in other major economies may cool. In the U.S., economic data over the past month that were weaker than analysts projected prompted investor speculation that the Federal Reserve may increase monetary stimulus in a bid to keep the economy growing.
“We will continue to carefully assess ongoing financial and economic developments, and we remain prepared to take further policy actions as needed to foster a return to full utilization of our nation’s productive potential in a context of price stability,” Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday.
Broader Context
China’s economic expansion eased to 10.3 percent in the second quarter from 11.9 percent in the preceding three months, the statistics bureau said July 15. Industrial-production growth slowed the most since 2008 in June, as regulators shutter energy-intensive factories.
“Lingering uncertainty over the U.S. and Asia, as well as the continuing troubles in Europe, may also have” prompted Brazil’s central bank to slow the pace of rate increases, Ilan Goldfajn and Guilherme da Nobrega, economists at Itau Unibanco Holding SA, wrote in an e-mail to clients.
Itau expects the central bank to keep borrowing costs unchanged until early next year, before resuming increases.
Traders anticipated the central bank’s move, paring their bets for an increase after Meirelles on July 15 said he would weigh all data released until yesterday’s board meeting.
Yields on interest-rate futures contracts showed that traders cut their bets to a 0.50 percentage point rise, from the 0.75 percentage point rise they expected before July 20.
Brazil’s economy will slow in the third quarter, after the government phased out tax cuts and cut spending, Finance Minister Guido Mantega said July 15. The central bank increased reserve requirements on cash deposits to 43 percent from 42 percent on June 25.
‘Cycle is Over’
Economists reduced their forecast for inflation this year for the second straight week to 5.42 percent, a weekly central bank survey of about 100 economists published this week showed. Consumer prices will rise 4.8 percent next year, the survey showed.
Brazil’s unemployment rate fell in June more than expected to 7 percent, the national statistic agency said in a report distributed today in Rio de Janeiro.
The figure was lower than the median estimate of 7.3 percent among 34 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Unemployment was 7.5 percent in May.
“Unemployment figure shows labor market is still heated,” Roberto Padovani, chief economist at Banco WestLB do Brasil SA, said in a phone interview.
Padovani expects the central bank will keep rates unchanged in its Aug. 31-Sept. 1 meeting.
“The interest rate increase cycle is over,” he said. “There are many factors that will hold growth -- loans to companies are expanding at a slower pace; imports are up, monetary stimulus is being dialed back and there is the external situation.”
Fuente: Bloomberg : http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=af8kHy9MySfk
